The Mexican government has been fighting a two-decade war against cartels in the country. And security experts say the latter has evolved in a way that makes them more dangerous than ever.
Not only are they peddling illicit substances across the border to the United States, but they're also controlling territory within Mexico, a move that's led to violent inter-cartel battles over territory.
"Cartels now operate more like insurgent groups than purely criminal organizations, employing tactics such as improvised explosive devices (IEDs), drones, and the recruitment of foreign mercenaries, specifically from Colombia," explains the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy. "As of May 2024, cartels controlled about one-third of Mexico’s territory."
This evolution, say the experts, is a direct security threat to Mexico, the United States, and regional stability.
One of the reasons cartels are becoming more militarized and powerful is because of the trafficking of weapons from America into Mexico. Between 200,000 and 500,000 firearms are smuggled across the border every year, according to a CBS 60 Minutes report. The movement of these weapons has become known as “the iron river.”
Mexico has previously accused U.S. weapons manufacturers and stores of reckless and unlawful practices that enable cartels and other criminals. The country has gone as far as filing two lawsuits in a bid to halt the "iron river."
"The flow of weapons is facilitated by the stark contrast between U.S. and Mexican gun markets," notes the institute. "The U.S. has over 75,000 active gun dealers, creating a vast supply chain that is difficult to monitor, while Mexico operates only a single, highly restricted gun store located on a military base in Mexico City."
Now, the Mexican army has gone a step further by eliminating one of the most notorious cartel leaders, Nemesio “El Mencho” Rubén Oseguera Cervantes. The founder of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel was fatally shot during a sting operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco.
The official word is that the military swooped in to arrest him, but they were met with fierce resistance from his own security team. "El Mencho" reportedly succumbed to his injuries on the way to the hospital.
While many celebrated the news of his passing, not everyone believes it's the answer to ending cartel violence and crime. In fact, say some, it could make matters worse...
"While the U.S. often treats the rise of the CJNG as a threat to be contained solely by Mexico, they conveniently overlook the American demand and weaponry that fuel the crisis," writes Gabriel Sanroman, who contributes to diplomatic research for the U.S. Department of State.
The expert argues that we "cannot have an honest conversation about the blood spilled across Mexico without acknowledging the three pillars of U.S. complicity." Those three being the insatiable demand for illicit substances, the “Iron River” of firearms, and a financial system that launders the profits.
Several parts of Mexico were plunged into chaos, as cartel members retaliated against the loss of "El Mencho." And ordinary civilians were the ones who paid the price. Many experts argue that it won't be long before fierce fighting breaks out as cartel members try to take the leader's place.
"This is a conflict that cannot be resolved with bullets alone," warns Sanroman. "As long as American consumerism demands the product and American policy allows the flow of weapons and the laundering of money, there will always be another 'Mencho' waiting to take the throne."
