In most countries, the state of quarantine has been going on for around two months now, and though some of them are either considering, or are already easing up on the lockdown conditions, this is by no means a sign of the pandemic being over. Nor a sign of victory over COVID-19. The virus is still potent and still at large.
This is prompting many to forecast everything from how long the lockdown will continue to how fast a vaccine will be developed to what the possible death toll of this pandemic will be.
Yascha Mounk, Associate Professor of the Practice of Political Science at Johns Hopkins SAIS, went to Twitter to share his thoughts and forecasts on the current COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the US. All in all, his conclusion is that the prognosis is “bleak.”
More info: Twitter
Political Scientist Yascha Mounk went to Twitter to give his prognosis of things to come with the pandemic
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
His research lead him to conclude that it's a "bleak picture", and points out 3 developments on the matter
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
First, he tackles the issue of death rate, saying that developing herd immunity may require up to 2M deaths
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
He also compiled a spreadsheet showing some figures
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
His second point is that there are no effective treatments in the foreseeable future
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Third, and last, Mounk says that US isn't anywhere near test-and-trace
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Apparently, there is not enough focus on solving the issue, thus adding to the COVID-19 problem
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
He wraps up with the following
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Mounk covers three new developments in his tweet thread: death rates, effective treatment, and test-trace system. The TL;DR version of it is that:
[1] antibody tests are coming in and it turns out COVID-19 is more prevalent than previously stated, potentially leading to larger death tolls; [2] there’s no effective treatment in sight as current drug tests fail to show any signs of helping the problem, with vaccines being the only possible way of effective treatment, but they’re not here yet; and [3] the US isn’t anywhere near test-and-trace, explaining that the focus on solving the problem is elsewhere than it should be, and it’s all left to the states rather than on a more universal scope.
Now, all of Mounk’s references can be found in his Twitter thread if you want to get acquainted with his sources, but even with that said, some people urge readers to take this information with a grain of salt.
They point out that though Mounk is a scientist, it’s of a political and not of a medical nature, so considering this as a documented and justified opinion piece is a fair approach. Others also note that this is a forecast, and like many forecasts, it’s likely to change; hence skepticism is advised to some degree.
Here's what others had to say about Mounk's bleak prognosis
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